NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5e181df53766a19b36742e6555e750e9ea0256044641e16b3db8ff96741eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c82…7cccbacked Under | 54c | 2,466$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a2…b2c1backed Over | 46c | 2,122$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…4458backed Under | 54c | 2,049$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…df08backed Under | 54c | 2,046$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…6140backed Over | 46c | 1,661$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4b…284abacked Over | 46c | 1,569$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 1,478$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,416$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…a9f4backed Under | 54c | 1,362$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4353backed Over | 46c | 1,290$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…8413backed Over | 46c | 1,281$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 1,106$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…0b2fbacked Over | 45c | 940$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 881.42$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.42 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 29c | 786.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa51…a910backed Under | 54c | 737.03$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 38c | 716$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.56 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Under | 57c | 503.51$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6922…a69abacked Under | 55c | 338$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3b31backed Under | 55c | 332$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…fc6ebacked Under | 8c | 280$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a1…0fcebacked Under | 55c | 270$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 151.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 55c | 151$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…b081backed Under | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 55c | 109.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 226 | 46.9%106 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 61c | 106.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 56c | 100.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…b402backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 42c | 99.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…0c80backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under | 54c | 88.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6c…ce09backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 65.6%84 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 41c | 77.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 58c | 57.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 55.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 55.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Under | 63c | 50.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -10.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 37c | 45.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 60c | 40.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…462fbacked Under | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 35.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 55c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…298cbacked Under | 58c | 27.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 45c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5this page
- Kings vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Kings vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.