Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099c4dd4ce8399c0b70244e018deab7dfcb727f1fceeb13a50a7352061b8dc71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 33c | 1,663$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.56 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 44c | 1,607$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.24 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 72c | 888.26$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 143 | 58%83 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 55c | 586.13$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.23 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed No | 78c | 521.62$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…34cabacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 28c | 429.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 71c | 410.63$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.46 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Yes | 79c | 410$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 57c | 387.58$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 377.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…081cbacked Yes | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 64c | 354$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 62c | 350.94$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 339.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 725 | 50.2%364 W · 361 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 57c | 324$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.07 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…aa55backed No | 72c | 309.72$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed No | 73c | 276.88$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked No | 70c | 252$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed No | 72c | 188.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 45c | 176.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 38c | 166$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 31.8%41 W · 88 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 28c | 136.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…10f2backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 51c | 132.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 62c | 126.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 47c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 49c | 119$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 60c | 105.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 89 | 31.5%28 W · 61 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 96.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 61c | 92.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c8…7f69backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked Yes | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 31c | 81.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 28c | 81.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 63c | 68.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 205 | 43.9%90 W · 115 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 50.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 24c | 46.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…1d5bbacked Yes | 46c | 45.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 37c | 44.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7062…9f54backed No | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 385 | 26.2%101 W · 284 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 33.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked No | 73c | 14.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. Universitatea Craiova CS end in a draw?this page
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-27?Yes won
- Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.