Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B: Hungary vs Estonia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09bbdbe606eb0af631981d45200c36ebd5daed3f4421d199e2a0b23785550d0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hungaryof Hungary, Estonia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Estonia | 41c | 3,518$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…ad17backed Estonia | 4c | 1,876$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967d…ef6abacked Hungary | 57c | 1,756$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Estonia | 40c | 1,605$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.83 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Hungary | 60c | 1,475$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.01 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b9…a560backed Estonia | 51c | 1,374$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hungary | 79c | 1,044$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.13 | 438 | 40.9%179 W · 259 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hungary | 79c | 930.35$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.41 | 230 | 33.9%78 W · 152 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Estonia | 39c | 745.62$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.52 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Estonia | 17c | 704.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Estonia | 19c | 655.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 679 | 31.4%213 W · 466 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…30a5backed Estonia | 7c | 639.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ce…0b26backed Hungary | 61c | 568.92$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…d25cbacked Estonia | 53c | 562.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Hungary | 73c | 553.65$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 319 | 40.1%128 W · 191 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…a43cbacked Hungary | 79c | 518.99$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hungary | 78c | 506.35$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 271 | 41.3%112 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Estonia | 9c | 464.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Hungary | 59c | 439.45$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.72 | 641 | 43.1%276 W · 365 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Estonia | 17c | 400.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hungary | 72c | 382.37$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 505 | 47.5%240 W · 265 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hungary | 77c | 365.67$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 199 | 50.8%101 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Estonia | 18c | 332.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5987…e287backed Estonia | 41c | 329.4$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Hungary | 79c | 317.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 763 | 51.6%394 W · 369 L | +29.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Hungary | 78c | 293.36$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 220 | 36.4%80 W · 140 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked Estonia | 32c | 289.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 290 | 51.7%150 W · 140 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Hungary | 54c | 280.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Estonia | 14c | 280.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Estonia | 14c | 275.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Hungary | 54c | 268.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…ccedbacked Estonia | 4c | 244.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Hungary | 77c | 230.17$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 654 | 51.1%334 W · 320 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Hungary | 52c | 214.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…b914backed Estonia | 9c | 207.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Hungary | 58c | 199.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 569 | 37.1%211 W · 358 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Estonia | 7c | 193.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 270 | 29.6%80 W · 190 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Hungary | 71c | 191.04$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…00bcbacked Estonia | 39c | 189.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hungary | 62c | 171.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 419 | 47.5%199 W · 220 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Estonia | 40c | 153.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Estonia | 11c | 144.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 103 | 16.5%17 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Hungary | 51c | 125.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 249 | 40.6%101 W · 148 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…0e9cbacked Estonia | 44c | 115.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Estonia | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Hungary | 53c | 106.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Hungary | 58c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 186 | 42.5%79 W · 107 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Estonia | 43c | 69.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 209 | 36.8%77 W · 132 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b45fbacked Hungary | 45c | 67.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 131 | 32.1%42 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Hungary | 61c | 63.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Estonia | 42c | 58.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked Estonia | 46c | 52.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed Hungary | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Estonia | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…3b09backed Estonia | 28c | 47.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed Hungary | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Hungary | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Hungary | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33c…b882backed Estonia | 37c | 33.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…1833backed Hungary | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Hungary | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Estonia | 40c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked Hungary | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Estonia | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5d2bbacked Hungary | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Hungary | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Hungary | 61c | 21.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Hungary | 68c | 21.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…5d8ebacked Hungary | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x799a…f4d0backed Hungary | 61c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…fdfcbacked Hungary | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…5e23backed Hungary | 63c | 16.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.