Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a196d93b343d5f842d21af11d19c326afe1057dc45f91e07976191a38d4d085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Páfos FCof Villarreal CF, Páfos FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Villarreal CF | 51c | 10,737$5,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,467.26 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Páfos FC | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Páfos FC | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Páfos FC | 51c | 2,216$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Páfos FC | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Páfos FC | 49c | 1,715$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Villarreal CF | 51c | 1,647$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.77 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Villarreal CF | 44c | 1,301$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.88 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Páfos FC | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Villarreal CF | 54c | 924.85$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.42 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Páfos FC | 46c | 784.83$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.81 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…9465backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Páfos FC | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Villarreal CF | 49c | 453.64$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Páfos FC | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Villarreal CF | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Páfos FC | 55c | 393.93$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Villarreal CF | 45c | 288.89$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Páfos FC | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Villarreal CF | 50c | 246$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2c26backed Páfos FC | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Villarreal CF | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Páfos FC | 49c | 149.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Villarreal CF | 50c | 100.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…b210backed Páfos FC | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…dfa7backed Villarreal CF | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Páfos FC | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Páfos FC | 48c | 91.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 87.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Villarreal CF | 46c | 80.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Villarreal CF | 54c | 63.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Villarreal CF | 52c | 61.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…c110backed Villarreal CF | 54c | 55.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Páfos FC | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 149 | 47%70 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Villarreal CF | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Páfos FC | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Páfos FC | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 48.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Villarreal CF | 52c | 46.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed Villarreal CF | 55c | 40.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…3a06backed Villarreal CF | 50c | 40.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Villarreal CF | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Villarreal CF | 49c | 39.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Villarreal CF | 54c | 32.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Páfos FC | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…2ee8backed Villarreal CF | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…0591backed Villarreal CF | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Villarreal CF | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…b95dbacked Villarreal CF | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Páfos FC | 47c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…1106backed Páfos FC | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd1…8deebacked Villarreal CF | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Villarreal CF | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Villarreal CF | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)this page
- Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.