Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jacob Fearnley
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a383c184f542e2dcfe926a50d9174940356ac27ebe473e6185840f41369e491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacob Fearnleyof Shintaro Mochizuki, Jacob Fearnley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 24c | 4,009$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.76 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 8c | 2,695$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Jacob Fearnley | 47c | 1,663$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.25 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Jacob Fearnley | 58c | 1,600$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 41c | 1,200$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.21 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 23c | 1,186$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jacob Fearnley | 68c | 1,180$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 9c | 1,084$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 847 | 36%305 W · 542 L | -35.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Jacob Fearnley | 58c | 770.73$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.93 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 42c | 680.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.02 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Jacob Fearnley | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68f…8d49backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 20c | 441.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 44c | 399.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.34 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7932…5b38backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 56c | 359.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 361 | 57.1%206 W · 155 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 41c | 344.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 17c | 332.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed Jacob Fearnley | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 601 | 58.6%352 W · 249 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 19c | 227.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jacob Fearnley | 54c | 194$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed Jacob Fearnley | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 215 | 60.5%130 W · 85 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Jacob Fearnley | 44c | 183.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…d3c2backed Jacob Fearnley | 61c | 164.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 465 | 62.6%291 W · 174 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 61c | 163.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 435 | 53.1%231 W · 204 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Jacob Fearnley | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Jacob Fearnley | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 8c | 126.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 8.6%19 W · 203 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 15c | 118.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Jacob Fearnley | 60c | 113.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6076…f8fdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 336 | 47.3%159 W · 177 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Jacob Fearnley | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Jacob Fearnley | 57c | 94.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 19c | 94.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…f14ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 54c | 93.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Jacob Fearnley | 65c | 89.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 283 | 48.4%137 W · 146 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Jacob Fearnley | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Jacob Fearnley | 75c | 79.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Jacob Fearnley | 79c | 74.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Jacob Fearnley | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 244 | 63.5%155 W · 89 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Jacob Fearnley | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…7b19backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 38c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 41c | 49.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 38c | 45.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…d1eebacked Shintaro Mochizuki | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Jacob Fearnley | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Jacob Fearnley | 58c | 39.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d1…3744backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,104 | 66.9%739 W · 365 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Jacob Fearnley | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Jacob Fearnley | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Shintaro Mochizuki | 43c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…0997backed Jacob Fearnley | 64c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Jacob Fearnley | 64c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…4c68backed Jacob Fearnley | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.