CS2 · resolved market
CS: HEROIC vs paiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aac52729e829bb4e3de334d58b1e554205864353f68c703277383d9cc849349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof HEROIC, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed HEROIC | 50c | 5,555$2,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.5 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked paiN | 57c | 3,977$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.35 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed HEROIC | 26c | 2,956$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.37 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked paiN | 49c | 2,330$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.7 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked paiN | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked HEROIC | 56c | 1,932$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.58 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked paiN | 60c | 1,746$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.58 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed paiN | 40c | 1,678$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.98 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed HEROIC | 49c | 1,503$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.18 | 755 | 50.6%382 W · 373 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed paiN | 50c | 1,272$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.82 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed HEROIC | 51c | 1,236$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.56 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed paiN | 50c | 1,001$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HEROIC | 47c | 913.55$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked paiN | 50c | 731.01$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.21 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HEROIC | 50c | 689$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.61 | 1,146 | 49.4%566 W · 580 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HEROIC | 39c | 648.6$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.95 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed HEROIC | 3c | 646$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked HEROIC | 32c | 607.72$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed HEROIC | 33c | 599$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed HEROIC | 72c | 562$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.64 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked HEROIC | 41c | 516.65$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.75 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed paiN | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked HEROIC | 52c | 500$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.06 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed paiN | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked paiN | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 815 | 44.4%362 W · 453 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…49eabacked paiN | 76c | 317.25$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed HEROIC | 51c | 293.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 969 | 45.6%442 W · 527 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed paiN | 48c | 290$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed paiN | 51c | 282$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…a4a1backed paiN | 59c | 260$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed paiN | 51c | 229$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked HEROIC | 63c | 218.48$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…5d4cbacked paiN | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked HEROIC | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed HEROIC | 48c | 188$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 692 | 53.6%371 W · 321 L | -23.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed paiN | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 859 | 46.1%396 W · 463 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked HEROIC | 57c | 172$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked HEROIC | 36c | 132$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HEROIC | 33c | 129.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed HEROIC | 54c | 129.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed HEROIC | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked HEROIC | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed HEROIC | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 737 | 58.2%429 W · 308 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed paiN | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HEROIC | 67c | 56.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked HEROIC | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed paiN | 50c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed paiN | 35c | 35.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 211 | 56.9%120 W · 91 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…9a90backed HEROIC | 49c | 29.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed HEROIC | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.