TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanghai Sharks vs. Qingdao Eagles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Shanghai Sharks, Qingdao Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$168,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,602 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5ec…5c81backed Qingdao Eagles0c60,500$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c6…ef4ebacked Qingdao Eagles0c38,005$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shanghai Sharks70c17,856$12,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,314.7554251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Qingdao Eagles0c11,110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Qingdao Eagles31c9,281$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.7616828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Qingdao Eagles26c5,811$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.2413235.6%47 W · 85 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Shanghai Sharks65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff2…3b8bbacked Qingdao Eagles38c1,888$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Qingdao Eagles33c1,697$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.2610941.3%45 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Qingdao Eagles30c1,624$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8926544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Qingdao Eagles28c1,329$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.1736939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Qingdao Eagles13c1,157$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.792330.4%7 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Qingdao Eagles33c1,150$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.087646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shanghai Sharks69c1,121$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.1943543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Qingdao Eagles28c1,081$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Qingdao Eagles29c1,075$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a5…555cbacked Qingdao Eagles30c928.21$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shanghai Sharks68c860.55$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.184551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Qingdao Eagles33c804$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.516940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Qingdao Eagles33c629$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.214533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Qingdao Eagles12c609.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5821444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Qingdao Eagles29c606.28$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Shanghai Sharks66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+77%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Qingdao Eagles32c531.46$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3312268.9%84 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Shanghai Sharks77c435.17$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8328943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Qingdao Eagles12c420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Qingdao Eagles11c404.51$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4612042.5%51 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d6f…7135backed Shanghai Sharks71c404.49$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.33455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Shanghai Sharks73c403.34$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.811172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+62.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Shanghai Sharks71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1162661.5%16 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Qingdao Eagles12c399.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4322231.5%70 W · 152 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Qingdao Eagles13c355.05$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.168037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Qingdao Eagles19c332.07$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5335234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Shanghai Sharks71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Shanghai Sharks55c299.98$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Qingdao Eagles33c299.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010634.9%37 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b69…e65dbacked Shanghai Sharks71c284.98$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.65100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec7…1e38backed Shanghai Sharks59c280.65$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.954136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x289c…79bcbacked Qingdao Eagles32c239.8$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.56825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Qingdao Eagles13c232.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307341.1%30 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Shanghai Sharks76c227.88$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.511526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Qingdao Eagles13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e5…3c0abacked Qingdao Eagles16c199.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Qingdao Eagles12c188.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6626935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ef1…352ebacked Qingdao Eagles27c182.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Qingdao Eagles11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4796…79fcbacked Qingdao Eagles33c181.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.131020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Qingdao Eagles9c178.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0624430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Shanghai Sharks69c177.33$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.436363.5%40 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Qingdao Eagles35c175.43$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.44037.5%15 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d68…546abacked Qingdao Eagles29c168.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Shanghai Sharks66c165.71$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…7df7backed Qingdao Eagles29c150.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.45540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed Shanghai Sharks71c145.34$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.181866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Shanghai Sharks70c142.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.94643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b06…3781backed Qingdao Eagles35c142.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba49…e8acbacked Qingdao Eagles31c137.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-78.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Qingdao Eagles8c137.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.012119%4 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b5…56abbacked Qingdao Eagles36c133.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70fb…d507backed Qingdao Eagles29c128.06$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Qingdao Eagles11c121$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.318845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shanghai Sharks62c117.1$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.510947.7%52 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Qingdao Eagles36c115.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.732231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bb…74fcbacked Shanghai Sharks65c114.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked Shanghai Sharks66c104.24$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Shanghai Sharks70c93.86$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.516663.6%42 W · 24 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x891f…88bfbacked Shanghai Sharks71c90.07$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Shanghai Sharks68c88.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1920936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Qingdao Eagles43c85.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.531233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1505…2f1abacked Qingdao Eagles33c82.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Qingdao Eagles30c80.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0625517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe3b8…80b8backed Shanghai Sharks75c79.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Qingdao Eagles28c75.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9131651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Shanghai Sharks73c74.23$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.042245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6de…6f5ebacked Qingdao Eagles19c72.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Shanghai Sharks73c68.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.465959.3%35 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f5…f924backed Qingdao Eagles35c63.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Qingdao Eagles35c63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.271533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe3…949cbacked Qingdao Eagles33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Shanghai Sharks70c59.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.773040%12 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Qingdao Eagles30c58.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.496144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe454…8b7dbacked Shanghai Sharks70c57.14$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ecb…4d64backed Qingdao Eagles38c55.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Shanghai Sharks72c54.36$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.191353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a47…3df5backed Qingdao Eagles33c53.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Qingdao Eagles26c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4618144.2%80 W · 101 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc73b…c3e9backed Qingdao Eagles28c51.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a90…700bbacked Shanghai Sharks67c51.07$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaec…6680backed Shanghai Sharks78c47.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Shanghai Sharks68c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.048544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1ee…9230backed Qingdao Eagles36c46.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64b…9cf1backed Shanghai Sharks58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed Qingdao Eagles32c41.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea1…e51abacked Qingdao Eagles36c41.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca3…483abacked Shanghai Sharks65c40.32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91c…985ebacked Qingdao Eagles31c39.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Shanghai Sharks77c37.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6c…d73abacked Qingdao Eagles36c37.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Shanghai Sharks73c33.45$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Shanghai Sharks58c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.866450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.