MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b5c3399164331aecce737896c461ede0483f00e8abb9744958a9df323602361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 23,247$11,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,307.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 49c | 17,954$8,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,796.79 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 53c | 16,290$8,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,671.92 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 47c | 15,661$7,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,357.1 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 38c | 10,493$3,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,983.68 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 10,361$6,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,937.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 50c | 9,877$4,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,929.73 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 5,141$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,402.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…34d4backed Over | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 1,967$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 1,587$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,584$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 1,368$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.53 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 912$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 47c | 814.66$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.89 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 47c | 551.21$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.07 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 53c | 550$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.5 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 31c | 498$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 51c | 493.84$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.98 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 446.81$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 48c | 332.6$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 36c | 241.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 51c | 214$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 52c | 194.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 173.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 159$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 155.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 109.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 51c | 102.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Under | 52c | 99.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 41c | 92.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 49c | 92.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 35c | 89.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 53c | 82.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 41c | 74.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 69.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 46c | 44.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 52c | 43.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 47c | 42.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 35c | 42.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Over | 46c | 35.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 70c | 30.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Under | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…2a5abacked Over | 47c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cc…c092backed Over | 49c | 20.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 61c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.