AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ba105316e67d13cc2e5ec1aea9a404f0d36ec5bf188d591069f5655014de3fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf02d…efcfbacked No | 18c | 7,889$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 9c | 3,991$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.08 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 9c | 2,484$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.92 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 6c | 2,008$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,212$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.01 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 25c | 967.96$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 25c | 862.58$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.23 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 738$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…6407backed No | 33c | 602.03$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 4c | 545.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 517.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…70d8backed No | 50c | 425.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 17c | 367.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 311$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 18c | 305$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed Yes | 50c | 286.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…94dcbacked No | 16c | 263.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked No | 61c | 233.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 71c | 161.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed No | 9c | 153.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…c3bebacked No | 65c | 149.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe546…28a6backed No | 8c | 146.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a23…184abacked No | 11c | 110.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed4…c4f2backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc171…19eebacked No | 20c | 99.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 65c | 86.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 18c | 82.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d4…08fcbacked No | 40c | 50.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…16afbacked No | 50c | 28.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaac…2e35backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?this page
- Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will glm-5.1 be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will muse-spark be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.