Token Launches · resolved market
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c27b26ecd4d7b1757c5ee2f8cc0c179153df6146f448aa4f7e8eedef625238c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 66c | 1,286$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.33 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 34c | 1,005$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.71 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 872$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 40c | 747.93$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.85 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 543.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 537$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 24c | 526$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 34c | 488.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…90dcbacked Yes | 47c | 473.07$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 468.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…78cabacked Yes | 24c | 458.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa2…2f24backed Yes | 34c | 455.11$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…5df6backed Yes | 46c | 423.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…9285backed Yes | 38c | 405$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61e1…c580backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 57c | 380.1$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 67c | 350$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 35c | 300.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 269.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 9c | 266.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0b…cc94backed No | 60c | 254.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 6c | 251.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…4053backed Yes | 25c | 238.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 221.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 33c | 211.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…8858backed Yes | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +207.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…d663backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 60c | 166.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…099abacked No | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3244…43bebacked No | 66c | 151.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…99f3backed Yes | 36c | 149.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed No | 69c | 145.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 78c | 127.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 31c | 122.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x577b…ad6abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4d44backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…22e9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…2e4ebacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416d…2dc9backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 97.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe670…244bbacked Yes | 21c | 96.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…5a49backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 92.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…925fbacked No | 68c | 88.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 85.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…7837backed No | 61c | 73.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked No | 66c | 63.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes | 36c | 59.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…65fabacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 32c | 53.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed No | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…b9e4backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…846bbacked No | 74c | 49.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…365bbacked No | 53c | 49.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f6…8df2backed Yes | 42c | 38.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…5ebebacked Yes | 34c | 29.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…5f34backed Yes | 39c | 28.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab37…c1cebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…92f8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Mezo FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Mezo FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Mezo FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Mezo FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Mezo FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Mezo FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Mezo FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.