Music · resolved market
Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c2be016808be64811aa1cb1888dd05ddd97ddef8f32938712e4e4404f8d332f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed No | 76c | 963.79$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…9f04backed Yes | 4c | 560.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…7dcbbacked Yes | 3c | 451$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…b991backed Yes | 4c | 425$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 399.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 24c | 399.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 11c | 372.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…58f8backed Yes | 23c | 325$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 320$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 309.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 71c | 297.91$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 9c | 279$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…c3f9backed Yes | 11c | 277.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 208.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52de…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…edbdbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.