TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,635 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Under50c1,096$552 inLost-$551.844,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over35c1,092$382 inWon+$710.1611,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over50c1,000$500 inWon+$50030150.8%153 W · 148 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd25…a624backed Under63c903.43$569 inLost-$569.167060%42 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf65e…a55abacked Under56c600$336 inLost-$3361050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over44c400.96$176 inWon+$224.548,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92f3…b21cbacked Under75c202.29$151 inLost-$151.414751.1%24 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick64cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over28c125.98$35 inWon+$90.9188656.4%500 W · 386 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over34c110.89$37 inWon+$73.6412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Under56c100$56 inLost-$567163.4%45 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under64c99.98$64 inLost-$63.9813453.7%72 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over46c96$44 inWon+$51.842,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over44c89.14$39 inWon+$49.9210,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Under74c66.89$49 inLost-$49.433352.3%174 W · 159 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Over30c42.08$13 inWon+$29.2914336.4%52 W · 91 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5bc…9b43backed Over40c31.25$13 inWon+$18.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Under70c28.57$20 inLost-$207263.9%46 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b4…11adbacked Over54c21.01$11 inWon+$9.6617148%82 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.