MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e66f4ef88cfcb81dbb6638b3e7f450774c3d6c14ab43540fe7df0440b03e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 64c | 760.64$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 716.4$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 64c | 671.88$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 637.27$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 37c | 426.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 64c | 323.5$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 305.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 65c | 159.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…540abacked Under | 38c | 71.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.