MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39134a03aea251a5b0ea37fcfb4bf131234dda9357bd12e8211bb40f74591f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 55c | 15,259$8,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,368.24 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 45c | 10,500$4,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,810 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 55c | 8,172$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.99 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 44c | 4,500$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…473dbacked No | 57c | 3,866$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 3,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.99 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 3,471$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.02 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 59c | 3,172$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,791$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.95 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 2,635$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Yes | 44c | 2,396$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.76 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…5a01backed No | 7c | 2,379$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6738…c215backed No | 55c | 2,268$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 56c | 2,232$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.92 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,032$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.35 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 52c | 1,417$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 56c | 1,329$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 57c | 1,058$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 43c | 830.52$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.7 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 57c | 439.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 45c | 416$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 56c | 368.88$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.65 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 344$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…aae7backed Yes | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 55c | 336.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.22 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Yes | 45c | 322.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 56c | 300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 57c | 264.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 56c | 221.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 57c | 219.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Yes | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed No | 54c | 156.22$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 57c | 153.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 44c | 150.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 44c | 135$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 44c | 125.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 44c | 113$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 47c | 71.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 57c | 70.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 44c | 64.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 45c | 56.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Yes | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 40.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 57c | 32.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Yes | 49c | 28.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 56c | 27.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.