MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac212a8a881d8314bc6b719584185dd6d98ab479b5cbcb3c2cb2684309df4618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0fd…a7dabacked Under | 47c | 10,500$4,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 8,107$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,497$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.38 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,595$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 74c | 1,329$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.04 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 57c | 1,316$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 1,218$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.42 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…09efbacked Over | 55c | 1,021$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 31c | 963.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 826$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 379$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.24 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 31c | 362.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 33c | 337$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 28c | 320$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 313.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 56c | 308.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 258.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 53c | 248.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 197.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 79c | 193.22$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 189$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked Under | 57c | 184.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 24c | 181$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Under | 44c | 170.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Under | 58c | 164.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 153.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 145$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 21c | 136.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 30c | 126.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 34c | 120.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 56c | 112.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 20c | 99.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 69c | 82.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320c…bb82backed Under | 26c | 69.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 50c | 62.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Under | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 47.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Under | 46c | 44.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 24c | 42.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 76c | 41.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 64c | 36.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 51c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 57c | 28.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…c0f8backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 65c | 24.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 49c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 66c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 73c | 17.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.