Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cac35946012f1d9cf9a17eebb47eb16b32f570719a0c16b68e22a426eed9399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Idaho Vandals, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana Grizzlies | 67c | 1,807$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.1 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Idaho Vandals | 48c | 743.27$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.03 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Idaho Vandals | 21c | 683$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho Vandals | 47c | 632.04$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.46 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 577.91$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.97 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…eeefbacked Montana Grizzlies | 74c | 505.29$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Idaho Vandals | 36c | 367.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Montana Grizzlies | 70c | 289.07$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Idaho Vandals | 49c | 275.18$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Idaho Vandals | 37c | 262.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Montana Grizzlies | 39c | 257.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.31 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Idaho Vandals | 49c | 186.66$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb3…b671backed Idaho Vandals | 79c | 171.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Montana Grizzlies | 34c | 162.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…61fdbacked Montana Grizzlies | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Idaho Vandals | 58c | 141.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Idaho Vandals | 47c | 133.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho Vandals | 23c | 126.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Idaho Vandals | 54c | 112$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Idaho Vandals | 26c | 108.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Idaho Vandals | 48c | 105.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Idaho Vandals | 43c | 97.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Idaho Vandals | 13c | 79.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Montana Grizzlies | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Idaho Vandals | 16c | 64.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5459…3830backed Idaho Vandals | 56c | 58.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Idaho Vandals | 53c | 56.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Montana Grizzlies | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…eb6abacked Montana Grizzlies | 49c | 52.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…036abacked Idaho Vandals | 48c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…afbcbacked Idaho Vandals | 54c | 36.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 703 | 49.6%349 W · 354 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 32.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 54c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Idaho Vandals | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Montana Grizzlies | 57c | 28.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 390 | 50.5%197 W · 193 L | -34.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho Vandals | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Idaho Vandals | 48c | 26.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 182 | 30.8%56 W · 126 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Montana Grizzlies | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Montana Grizzlies | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 64c | 16.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho Vandals vs. Montana Grizzliesthis page
- Spread: Montana Grizzlies (-1.5)Montana Grizzlies won
- Spread: Montana Grizzlies (-2.5)Montana Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.