Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wicked' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cad7134d8074357c2ead449306e46e4fd7b3c6e5dfdaa7a4d15424a4272c395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 70c | 3,252$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.48 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 75c | 1,704$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.27 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 55c | 1,300$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.66 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 24c | 1,049$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 40c | 958.11$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.04 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8086…a714backed No | 24c | 514$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 417.36$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 42c | 398$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked No | 28c | 379.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 370.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 24c | 322.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 13c | 313.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 59c | 243.24$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…49a0backed Yes | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 34c | 196.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 42c | 193$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Yes | 76c | 187$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 10c | 162.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 26c | 159.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed No | 28c | 144.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bf…bbfcbacked Yes | 76c | 144$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 71c | 141.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 51c | 137.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8fddbacked No | 24c | 131$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a56cbacked Yes | 76c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…a3e6backed No | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…abffbacked No | 25c | 83.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…e5e7backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 69.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…32bcbacked No | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…2948backed No | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d2…8dfdbacked No | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 24c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…de48backed No | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1f…a533backed No | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…3c41backed Yes | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…105bbacked Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c1…6d70backed Yes | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 23.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…03fdbacked Yes | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +215.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eeabbacked Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e6…a508backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…3087backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…7f13backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…a59bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…2e29backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1a…368cbacked Yes | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fa…be93backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…f720backed Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…cfb8backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…d09dbacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Wicked' win 2 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?this page
- Will 'Wicked' win 0 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Wicked' win 1 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Wicked' win 3 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Wicked' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
- Will 'Wicked' win 6+ Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.