TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Poor Rangers vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rune Eatersof Poor Rangers, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked Poor Rangers29c34,425$9,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,844.289341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Rune Eaters61c18,031$11,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,947.751,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Rune Eaters63c16,183$10,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,040.2328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6364…1c50backed Poor Rangers38c14,477$5,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,501.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Poor Rangers39c11,975$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615.1771143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Rune Eaters52c11,279$5,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,395.8653451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Poor Rangers14c10,921$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.941,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1720…3c09backed Poor Rangers37c6,974$2,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,574.242240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Poor Rangers38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28051140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Rune Eaters62c4,964$3,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,896.8650347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Poor Rangers38c4,950$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,88126540.8%108 W · 157 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Rune Eaters62c4,379$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.8730357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Poor Rangers39c4,337$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.061,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Poor Rangers38c3,997$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.441,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Poor Rangers46c3,500$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.5191756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Rune Eaters54c2,648$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,226.7879159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Rune Eaters64c2,600$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.068050%40 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Rune Eaters61c2,145$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.3925752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Rune Eaters57c2,000$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8707936.7%29 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Poor Rangers38c1,619$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.7158744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Rune Eaters61c1,608$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.111154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Rune Eaters61c1,583$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.7245352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe39c…71c4backed Rune Eaters58c1,534$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.215360.4%32 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Poor Rangers39c1,519$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.630854.9%169 W · 139 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Rune Eaters60c1,517$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.6722340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Poor Rangers40c1,500$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.0256949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Poor Rangers53c1,318$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.5190753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Poor Rangers16c1,225$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9722031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Poor Rangers42c1,188$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7948053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Poor Rangers37c1,185$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.3269644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Rune Eaters55c1,152$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.859350.5%47 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Rune Eaters59c1,115$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.1932756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Poor Rangers2c1,100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Rune Eaters60c1,030$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41265441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Poor Rangers53c1,004$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.7344149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Poor Rangers38c998.22$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.0750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Rune Eaters61c974.1$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.927060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked Rune Eaters65c900$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3159042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Poor Rangers38c872.48$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.841,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Rune Eaters50c856$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42828347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Poor Rangers38c838.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8110741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Rune Eaters50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.311,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed Poor Rangers32c793.56$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.7321047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Rune Eaters63c791.11$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.7125246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Rune Eaters60c749$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Rune Eaters60c744.13$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.6532548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Poor Rangers55c740.43$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.7177258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Rune Eaters63c740$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.753758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Rune Eaters69c726.17$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2135062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Rune Eaters62c716.13$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.1312253.3%65 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Poor Rangers38c665.05$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.335951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Poor Rangers53c661$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35015150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Rune Eaters69c656.51$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.791,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba46…6ac5backed Rune Eaters65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.385275%39 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81a9…df08backed Rune Eaters62c583.87$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.875137.3%19 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Rune Eaters59c576$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1641351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Poor Rangers39c571.23$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7858156.6%329 W · 252 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Poor Rangers30c549.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16449644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Rune Eaters60c532.31$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.481,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…98abbacked Rune Eaters63c530.29$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2115546.5%72 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Rune Eaters53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23555251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Poor Rangers41c500$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4428044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Poor Rangers40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Rune Eaters60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20035637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Rune Eaters63c462.5$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.545046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ee…83b0backed Rune Eaters66c455.38$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3815742%66 W · 91 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed Poor Rangers44c454.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Rune Eaters60c400$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.821851.8%113 W · 105 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Rune Eaters62c343.5$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3725266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a40…e2c4backed Rune Eaters60c339.32$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.674141.5%17 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed Poor Rangers32c332.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5617633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Rune Eaters64c331.25$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.2572154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Rune Eaters61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1172759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Rune Eaters62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11429047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Rune Eaters61c299.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11754659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbd…c385backed Poor Rangers34c294.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022665%147 W · 79 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Rune Eaters62c293$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3417047.1%80 W · 90 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260a…eb0fbacked Rune Eaters62c263.9$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1515368%104 W · 49 L+17.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed Rune Eaters61c262.56$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.47055.7%39 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Rune Eaters62c258.73$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1329352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21cc…54bcbacked Rune Eaters56c256.38$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.388442.9%36 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed Poor Rangers48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Poor Rangers16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040933%135 W · 274 L-36.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Rune Eaters53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.559154%319 W · 272 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Rune Eaters70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed Poor Rangers40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a2…c1c2backed Rune Eaters63c238.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+39.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Poor Rangers43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010142.6%43 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Poor Rangers43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023838.2%91 W · 147 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed Poor Rangers31c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9519839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Rune Eaters56c200$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8745951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Rune Eaters55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Rune Eaters60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Rune Eaters68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Poor Rangers37c199.88$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9692846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Rune Eaters61c186$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8915950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Rune Eaters60c178.55$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.231,44348.7%703 W · 740 L+29.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Poor Rangers39c176.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-63.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked Poor Rangers17c176.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022339%87 W · 136 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cce…4b52backed Poor Rangers43c174.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.