TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Marcus Smart: Points O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,996 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7879…3653backed Yes1c63,821$424 inLost-$423.9115952.8%84 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Yes1c16,623$150 inLost-$1506341.3%26 W · 37 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…af44backed Yes1c3,335$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No65c2,387$1,559 inWon+$827.981,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfab5…aa48backed Yes1c1,257$13 inLost-$12.571030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8134…93bfbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Yes33c909.09$300 inLost-$3006031.7%19 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x095e…b244backed Yes38c816.46$312 inLost-$312450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+92.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Yes33c799.38$260 inLost-$260.3717953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x864f…ebe6backed Yes33c606.06$200 inLost-$200540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfe…5c6cbacked Yes32c316.67$100 inLost-$1001338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No67c303.03$203 inWon+$10090863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No68c231$157 inWon+$73.9277549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5818…39e2backed Yes38c150$57 inLost-$5713950.4%70 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…798abacked No62c150$93 inWon+$575470.4%38 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked No65c135$88 inWon+$47.2513448.5%65 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Yes17c116.97$20 inLost-$203951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No68c110$75 inWon+$35.227074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No68c100$68 inWon+$3295260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6005…8b26backed Yes33c90.91$30 inLost-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No66c86.07$57 inWon+$29.044,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da8…088abacked Yes32c84.38$27 inLost-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed No67c52.64$35 inWon+$17.4780440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked No67c50$34 inWon+$16.516551.5%85 W · 80 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No66c44.04$29 inWon+$14.861,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No68c40$27 inWon+$12.860267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed No66c38.28$25 inWon+$12.9345544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f15…52f1backed Yes38c27.36$10 inLost-$10.45350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58fe…dc22backed No72c22.34$16 inWon+$6.261520%3 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-63.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No67c14.93$10 inWon+$4.9397049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.