TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Lakers, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$620,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $620,725 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 395 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons49c115,981$57,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,808.5372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd64…7445backed Pistons47c110,000$51,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,3003366.7%22 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Pistons51c39,216$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,215.6717251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Pistons49c35,649$17,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,181.124257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Lakers49c31,706$15,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,536.0356646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers49c21,254$10,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,383.794,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Lakers50c20,853$10,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,426.548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Lakers50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50027251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Lakers51c14,824$7,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,56029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84de…82d4backed Lakers53c13,862$7,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,346.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers49c12,943$6,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,342.091,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…52afbacked Lakers53c12,732$6,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,747.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons53c11,976$6,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,617.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Lakers50c11,410$5,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7056352.4%33 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers49c10,743$5,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,265.824,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8c…75b8backed Pistons47c10,276$4,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,446.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Lakers50c9,806$4,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90311335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f5b…5d1bbacked Pistons47c9,667$4,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.51850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Lakers54c9,259$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00015551.6%80 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffad…3b11backed Pistons47c8,890$4,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,711.7875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd779…7cf7backed Lakers53c8,890$4,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,711.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5a…874cbacked Lakers53c8,229$4,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,361.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9615…a201backed Lakers53c8,118$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,302.54450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb374…4957backed Pistons47c8,091$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,288.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa968…1388backed Lakers53c8,043$4,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,262.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x305b…562cbacked Lakers53c7,866$4,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,168.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb43…fc3cbacked Lakers53c7,796$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+38.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x984f…8024backed Lakers53c7,779$4,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,122.87450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…4d15backed Pistons47c7,591$3,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,023.231154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aee…2bdcbacked Lakers53c7,571$4,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,012.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0936…6c02backed Lakers50c7,520$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7605341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons51c7,306$3,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf93c…06c4backed Lakers53c7,177$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.81450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers51c7,092$3,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6171,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d9…7d07backed Lakers53c6,746$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf95d…de12backed Lakers53c6,702$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.06450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe39…461ebacked Lakers54c6,660$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,596.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa8…20a0backed Lakers53c6,347$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,363.911566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+33.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x934e…e7c0backed Lakers51c6,334$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2141844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdc…8e1ebacked Lakers53c5,976$3,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,167.28450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e2…d106backed Pistons47c5,646$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,992.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566c…1bbabacked Lakers53c5,457$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,892.21450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf6…64f1backed Pistons47c5,408$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7abf…9094backed Lakers53c5,379$2,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.87540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52b…62ffbacked Pistons47c5,353$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,837.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eb8…5703backed Pistons47c5,270$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.1875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d1d…3436backed Lakers53c5,213$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,763450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251c…c534backed Lakers53c5,209$2,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,760.77966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91bb…05eabacked Pistons47c5,094$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.82580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+64.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e6…9e11backed Lakers53c4,970$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,634.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb59…d723backed Pistons47c4,840$2,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Pistons52c4,745$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.3619954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b78…ad32backed Lakers53c4,550$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.5650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab0…1b9cbacked Lakers53c4,509$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.77875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Lakers51c4,502$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,29615141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…2a75backed Pistons47c4,383$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7619…3428backed Lakers53c4,346$2,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a5…484abacked Lakers53c4,247$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.91887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.36per pick52cpaid+70.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Lakers49c4,151$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.034035%14 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5603…deebbacked Lakers53c4,144$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x095d…715fbacked Pistons47c4,103$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,174.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x070c…508bbacked Lakers53c4,081$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.93825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb74b…23e2backed Lakers53c4,050$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa78e…652ebacked Lakers53c4,020$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc379…b8cfbacked Lakers53c3,981$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons54c3,942$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.052,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers48c3,831$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.774,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227b…98a6backed Lakers53c3,818$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers48c3,713$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.622,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cf…5e3fbacked Pistons47c3,629$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+61%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7342…4169backed Pistons47c3,507$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.711181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+63.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Pistons52c3,459$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.337451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Pistons51c3,442$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,686.5529748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e2…a5f7backed Lakers53c3,349$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.78683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+66.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cc7…0602backed Lakers51c3,124$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.19352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lakers49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lakers50c2,971$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.642,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe060…9f19backed Pistons47c2,968$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+62.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fc4…7a8fbacked Lakers53c2,936$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0db6…de56backed Pistons47c2,897$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb2…a3bbbacked Pistons47c2,775$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.75771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+44.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc034…ea63backed Pistons47c2,757$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca64…4ac6backed Lakers53c2,749$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.97540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf713…09f8backed Pistons47c2,715$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.95742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e9…8cd6backed Pistons47c2,635$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd79…51f2backed Lakers53c2,599$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa650…09c6backed Pistons47c2,575$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.75771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+48.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d42…7671backed Lakers53c2,539$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.551154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1b…04abbacked Lakers53c2,525$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x523e…c29abacked Pistons47c2,491$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.231266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pistons51c2,472$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.11,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…038bbacked Lakers53c2,458$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc36…aeb1backed Lakers53c2,433$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38c6…3f4fbacked Lakers53c2,417$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6305…e06dbacked Lakers53c2,411$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4333…b1e1backed Lakers53c2,332$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.9630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Pistons51c2,234$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.5720545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Pistons52c2,222$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.569349.5%46 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa5…6ef9backed Pistons47c2,216$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.