Us Politics · resolved market
Trump x Epstein files made public by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d249dcf32df59ebc550a299bddb19c0c030714ef4a8c25bf51ad5b1c9db65c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 20,423$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.69 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 5c | 11,596$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.36 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 4,850$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.09 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 4c | 4,450$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…4427backed Yes | 2c | 3,671$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 14c | 3,562$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 4c | 3,076$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,728$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,703$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 2,409$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…0033backed Yes | 4c | 2,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,218$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…1039backed Yes | 2c | 2,167$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 7c | 2,055$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 9c | 1,975$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.77 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,874$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…5b74backed Yes | 9c | 1,718$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 6c | 1,666$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 1,527$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…6e09backed Yes | 3c | 1,470$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,132$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 4c | 991.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 13c | 944.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…faadbacked Yes | 15c | 934.41$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 930.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 2c | 801.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 747.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…0792backed Yes | 9c | 707.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 680$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 4c | 639.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2653…d0f4backed Yes | 3c | 608.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 3c | 525.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 480$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 462$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 23c | 438.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 3c | 398.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 3c | 297.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 80c | 239$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…0ad1backed Yes | 17c | 177.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 23c | 175.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c88…e42ebacked Yes | 7c | 149.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.