Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc7143a2bb8cac4cc06c175bc75a43bc788a28c67beea4b6a3a15f87e5ec70f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 507.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 21c | 408.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.46 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 297.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 77c | 271.46$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 246.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.42 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 222.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 20c | 201.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 196.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 20c | 174.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.57 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 167.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 26c | 164.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 19c | 148.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 70c | 135.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 25c | 127.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 35c | 92.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 89.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 84.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 78.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 24c | 75.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 23c | 74.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 73.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 21c | 70.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 72c | 70.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 38c | 55.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 54.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 26c | 53.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 47.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 32c | 43.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 39.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 30c | 38.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 37.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 27.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 77c | 25.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 20.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…0a5abacked Yes | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db0…6ac5backed No | 69c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 80c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 80c | 12.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…cd98backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.