Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae18814719150b2f0b00a330c7d113224bf44f4642b182c9899c78aec0a70f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 168.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 165.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 7c | 164.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 26c | 154.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 145.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 26c | 142.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 137.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 24c | 120.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 116.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 111.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 110.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…64afbacked Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 27c | 83.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 80.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 76c | 78.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 73.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 72.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 32c | 72.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 68.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 77c | 65.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 63.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 33c | 61.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 26c | 59.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 18c | 56.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 51.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 49.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 31.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 66c | 28.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 77c | 24.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 75c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 22.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 62c | 19.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 79c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.