Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67443199afdf355cfdaa1cd4c1e3132a8d8527be6b03952a821b6be583d68914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 35c | 2,309$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.51 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 76c | 1,281$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.78 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f74bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,202$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…f6e4backed Yes | 5c | 1,077$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 75c | 957.43$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.75 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 922.39$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 70c | 485.9$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 467.62$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 27c | 369.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.18 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 37c | 331.45$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 40c | 313.57$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 281.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 278.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 262.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.31 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 28c | 234.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 229$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 64c | 206$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 36c | 206$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 202.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 54c | 182.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 33c | 176.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 176$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 170$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 58c | 164.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 43c | 147.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 76c | 140.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 78c | 140.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 35c | 139.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 136$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 129$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 126.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 37c | 126.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 63c | 124.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 121.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 79c | 120.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 118.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 113.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 22c | 111.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 31c | 104.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc388…ed37backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 78c | 94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 93.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c5…508dbacked Yes | 77c | 91.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 35c | 90.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…9390backed No | 61c | 89.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 82.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 44c | 81.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 78c | 81.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 77.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 35c | 77.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 48c | 75.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 27c | 75.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…64afbacked Yes | 42c | 73.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 72.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 34c | 69.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 27c | 68.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 41c | 66.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 65.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 62c | 63.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked Yes | 56c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 52c | 59.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked No | 26c | 58.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 39c | 57.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 36c | 56.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 72c | 55.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 52.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 48.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 22c | 46.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…e1d0backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…99a7backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd01…bc75backed Yes | 67c | 45.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 24c | 45.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 41c | 45.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 54c | 44.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 76c | 40.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 68c | 40.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 39.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 39.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 64c | 39.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…af5bbacked No | 30c | 35.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 78c | 32.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.