Valorant · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ddbbaebbf0a663e1b0f572bfd202701ac7e3aa66ceff522f37e95aae920c40b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,852 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 1c | 5,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…78f6backed Over | 79c | 1,273$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.61 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 21c | 1,067$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.04 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 22c | 599.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 21c | 567.55$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…f36fbacked Over | 79c | 506.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 5c | 377$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 76c | 261.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…f240backed Over | 79c | 253.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…cf74backed Over | 79c | 253.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374d…991abacked Over | 79c | 245.77$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 10c | 209.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…0169backed Over | 76c | 187.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Under | 24c | 183.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 361 | 38.5%139 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 25c | 63.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…7132backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb108…7212backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed Over | 79c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)Paper Rex won
- Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)NRG won
- Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago PlayoffsPaper Rex won
- Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 2 WinnerPaper Rex won
- Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 WinnerPaper Rex won
- Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 4 WinnerPaper Rex won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.