NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2586b21e17461b22a0773d580281d0ff9eb104447c838656bca129d79bfbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2016…b4bebacked Timberwolves | 61c | 7,023$4,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,731.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Timberwolves | 40c | 6,310$2,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,786.13 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thunder | 49c | 4,919$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.74 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder | 38c | 3,196$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.3 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Timberwolves | 39c | 1,634$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Timberwolves | 79c | 610$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Timberwolves | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Thunder | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Timberwolves | 60c | 463.56$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Thunder | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…7907backed Thunder | 41c | 341.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…68d1backed Thunder | 67c | 308.9$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Timberwolves | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 260.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.24 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Timberwolves | 59c | 254.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Timberwolves | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed Thunder | 70c | 213.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Thunder | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Thunder | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Thunder | 40c | 190.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 43c | 189.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Timberwolves | 61c | 169$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Timberwolves | 60c | 163.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…9d78backed Timberwolves | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…1104backed Thunder | 59c | 147.46$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Timberwolves | 46c | 128.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Timberwolves | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Timberwolves | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…74ddbacked Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Timberwolves | 60c | 95.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Thunder | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…c364backed Timberwolves | 66c | 75.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Timberwolves | 38c | 44.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…9a3dbacked Thunder | 67c | 36.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Thunder | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Timberwolves | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec32…e87fbacked Thunder | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Timberwolves | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.