NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x273847a10f3b1f47b9069aacf82c2ce9ce583f4190e86527d0b43083ed1acfaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Over | 53c | 9,223$4,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,367.08 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Under | 47c | 6,518$3,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.01 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.98 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 48c | 4,741$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.05 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Over | 52c | 3,300$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 2,202$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.71 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…62c3backed Over | 53c | 1,508$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed Over | 53c | 1,290$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbf…6b6dbacked Under | 5c | 1,060$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Under | 4c | 754.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Under | 48c | 692.98$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.56 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 53c | 684$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.48 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Over | 54c | 550$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 539.66$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.52 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Over | 52c | 500$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Over | 53c | 489$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Over | 53c | 475.45$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.45 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…c3c2backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Over | 53c | 379.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 53c | 358.83$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 48c | 326.17$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.56 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Over | 48c | 311$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.72 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Under | 47c | 286.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Under | 47c | 256.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 69c | 222$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…5c6abacked Over | 53c | 176$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 46c | 160$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Under | 48c | 160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Under | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…c000backed Over | 52c | 134.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 53c | 120.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…927dbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…15b9backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Over | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…0e94backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 218.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. TimberwolvesThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.