TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3817…7d10backed Under49c1,623$795 inWon+$827.584654.3%25 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over51c980$500 inLost-$499.82,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Over51c979.88$500 inLost-$499.745044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under51c484.4$247 inWon+$237.3620741.1%85 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c83…6489backed Over48c374$180 inLost-$179.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3295…870bbacked Over48c366$176 inLost-$175.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd65b…c9f4backed Under52c342$178 inWon+$164.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed7…53afbacked Over48c297$143 inLost-$142.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdb…5d13backed Under52c271$141 inWon+$130.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over51c263.02$134 inLost-$134.114,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…24a6backed Under52c245$127 inWon+$117.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2229…f50dbacked Over48c243$117 inLost-$116.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c9…56fbbacked Under52c218$113 inWon+$104.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2d…9b33backed Under52c215$112 inWon+$103.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c214.03$106 inLost-$106.175,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…798ebacked Over48c212$102 inLost-$101.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed Under49c205.1$100 inWon+$104.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f10…7d2bbacked Under52c201$105 inWon+$96.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Over50c40$20 inLost-$19.9937845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Over51c39.82$20 inLost-$20.3155347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Over51c39.17$20 inLost-$19.9860945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c32.48$17 inWon+$15.923,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.