NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2957c082b0a2de8cc1e56ac90605222dc7d7ce9d6e2a2388c316e74980dd1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,475 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 5,460$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 4,176$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 50c | 3,035$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.5 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 46c | 2,428$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.12 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 2,261$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.86 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 2,128$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.3 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,468$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 1,057$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 898.4$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.99 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 56c | 706.57$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Over | 56c | 561.42$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.45 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 15c | 450$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 188 | 35.1%66 W · 122 L | +24.5wins | +0.13per pick | 22cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 440.07$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.43 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa438…8605backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 51c | 392$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 380$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 15c | 312.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 50c | 214.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…6dcfbacked Under | 48c | 204.17$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over | 47c | 197.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…b812backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 191$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…fd65backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe687…154bbacked Under | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Over | 55c | 159.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 50c | 155.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Under | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.94 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 48c | 138.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 120.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Under | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 111.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…7cefbacked Over | 50c | 100.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Under | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 56c | 89.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Over | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…091cbacked Under | 44c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa777…1afbbacked Over | 56c | 74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 72.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…882abacked Under | 44c | 70.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…9e0bbacked Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 230 | 51.3%118 W · 112 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 46.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…91dfbacked Over | 52c | 46.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 49c | 44.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 201 | 40.3%81 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 47c | 42.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3566…ca68backed Over | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 54c | 41.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…a306backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 50c | 39.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 38.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 49c | 36.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Under | 49c | 35.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Over | 45c | 33.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…b390backed Over | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…21f7backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 27.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 26.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 50c | 25.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Under | 46c | 25.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 50c | 22.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…3e11backed Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…65bdbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 53c | 19.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 221.5this page
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Alex Caruso: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jared McCain: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Magic won
- Thunder vs. MagicThunder won
- Thunder vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Magic: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.