TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,588 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c10,535$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,424.184,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over50c9,735$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,859.1115545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c6,861$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Over54c5,234$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.5348352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over52c5,109$2,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.0949246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c4,847$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.391,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff8…a2cabacked Under47c4,190$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.71346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over52c3,924$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.6458449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under48c3,733$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.161,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Over55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over55c1,720$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.266248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under73c1,711$1,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.5865872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under50c1,674$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83770246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Under45c1,565$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.8735744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…a6c5backed Over53c1,486$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7875046%23 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Over53c1,368$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.269952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Over34c1,206$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.520741.1%85 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under56c1,012$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.423,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over52c1,003$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5214,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9940947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under53c978.22$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.782,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b04…7377backed Over53c919$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.071353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under51c905.99$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.941,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Over54c855.92$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.225049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8aa…81ecbacked Under45c840$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4621844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under46c830.67$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.652230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeba5…6ff7backed Under48c803$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Over47c770$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.947354.8%259 W · 214 L+14.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Over53c609.06$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.816837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Over54c555$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.723553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under48c551$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.5254443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under47c533.01$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.623,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over55c505.45$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27818241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Under48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26018448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over32c496.65$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…b0b3backed Over47c488.09$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.423256.9%132 W · 100 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over47c458$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2640146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under47c385.41$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.161,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over46c380.6$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.142,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1629…8510backed Under54c333.33$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.3310249%50 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…2b32backed Under49c327.55$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under45c320$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17645646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under45c311.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.1152146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Under46c252.31$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.253745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over56c247.77$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.751,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under45c245$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.751,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2243447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3508…39b5backed Under49c208.16$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.161040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24a…d9fabacked Over6c190.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Under49c183.22$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6110144.6%45 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x980e…bc50backed Under48c181$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe251…3575backed Over53c181$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under46c170$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0623651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c160$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.842853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under51c144.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.561,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over55c130.13$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.571,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under54c129.38$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.939943.1%172 W · 227 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Under48c118.03$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4858450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over53c116.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4262347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc60…de9cbacked Under48c116$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under46c106.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.452,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Under48c106.25$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2513155%72 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x461b…30ddbacked Under47c105.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.54233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x434e…a62ebacked Over54c104.59$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4821748.4%105 W · 112 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5259650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5325559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77a7…bb11backed Under47c96.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45054%27 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c93.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.532,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1c…b810backed Under46c82.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.676852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Over54c82.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.677960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4434047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4457250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Under48c79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0816845.2%76 W · 92 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7492…6568backed Under55c76.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5131955.2%176 W · 143 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d2a…7defbacked Over46c74.46$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.254843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over54c71.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6467248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.444747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…882abacked Under45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.55650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over49c64.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1395047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed Under50c60.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1115144.4%67 W · 84 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over54c59.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over50c58.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5491746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over52c56.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.293,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under46c52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.086,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Over47c49.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4911748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over52c49.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.591,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under47c49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9729352.9%155 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514253.5%76 W · 66 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe293…d3edbacked Under51c46.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7712739.4%50 W · 77 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Under46c45.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4437842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Over48c42.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.213138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under53c41.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5314471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Over47c37.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.532934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a1a…8984backed Over50c36.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.175540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Under53c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5912331.7%39 W · 84 L-17.0wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under52c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Under48c31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1214753.7%79 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.