TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Thunder, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$246,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,769 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic48c50,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,999.951,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder53c48,295$25,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,403.411,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic47c29,731$13,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,757.561,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Thunder52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic51c17,040$8,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,380.894,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Magic49c12,113$5,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,138.611546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic48c10,234$4,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,326.084,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Thunder52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Thunder52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…c2a4backed Magic48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2004337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Thunder52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Thunder52c7,692$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder50c7,226$3,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,606.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4180…cf9cbacked Thunder53c6,604$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5003342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Magic49c6,327$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,226.591,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder49c5,197$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.382,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Magic48c5,032$2,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.8917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Magic48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Thunder52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa02…e8c9backed Thunder51c4,352$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,219.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…129ebacked Thunder51c4,205$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Thunder52c4,021$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,090.9210451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0801,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa352…68ecbacked Thunder51c3,801$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,938.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa17…2a96backed Thunder51c3,404$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.0420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic47c3,148$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.462,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Magic48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56014245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Magic47c2,966$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.041,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Thunder53c2,712$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.4515551.6%80 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder51c2,611$1,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,323.394,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Thunder52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder54c2,445$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde22…d183backed Magic49c2,314$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.142100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Thunder52c2,275$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18334851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1559…73fdbacked Magic49c2,202$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b7…e391backed Magic49c2,202$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc515…c1b5backed Magic49c2,110$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Magic48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3410847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe39…5c3cbacked Thunder52c2,073$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-73.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1759…ab4bbacked Magic49c2,068$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b14…5c22backed Thunder52c1,985$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic47c1,910$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.453,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1715…caf2backed Magic49c1,717$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcafc…6a72backed Magic49c1,644$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3538…e06ebacked Magic48c1,521$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91a6…8a0ebacked Magic49c1,505$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x994c…08dcbacked Magic48c1,421$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9a…d35abacked Magic48c1,312$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Magic47c1,276$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.0838251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Thunder52c1,250$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Magic43c1,205$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.9721950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb39b…519fbacked Thunder52c1,171$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…499dbacked Magic48c1,148$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59c3…e61dbacked Thunder52c1,050$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Thunder53c1,039$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6718345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Magic49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.419345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Thunder1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13802.5%2 W · 78 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-88.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Thunder1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14981%1 W · 97 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Thunder2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Thunder48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48050239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Magic47c999.98$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.9952844.7%236 W · 292 L+1.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Thunder52c961.53$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Magic48c956.25$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.255052%26 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder52c909.25$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.394,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Magic48c863.64$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.0926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Thunder52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41627246.7%127 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6663…2a7bbacked Thunder52c786$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2603…3996backed Magic49c780$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.84100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+143.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic46c772.12$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.63,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde77…6351backed Magic49c761$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.111442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…0095backed Thunder53c754.72$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005369.8%37 W · 16 L+7.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+29%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Magic48c728.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.0821045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x175e…49b4backed Magic49c712.24$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.242937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc624…446fbacked Thunder52c708$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.161225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x44de…e77fbacked Thunder52c706$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.121546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ab…0206backed Thunder52c661$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03a9…9b52backed Magic49c653$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.031060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f9…cc6dbacked Thunder52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Magic55c574.5$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.528838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Magic69c546.99$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.161,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Thunder75c536.36$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40043269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder52c526.48$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.7741553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Magic48c510.6$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.5111754.7%64 W · 53 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Thunder53c501.89$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26647651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Thunder34c500$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16838242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe114…9301backed Thunder52c475$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f48…b800backed Thunder52c443.1$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dab…fb46backed Magic48c415$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Magic52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6220650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Thunder52c384.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb44a…8e18backed Thunder53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012033.3%40 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder41c358.37$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.232,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Thunder4c337.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.530224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa66a…f16fbacked Thunder52c329$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c67…a0e0backed Thunder45c314.31$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4329646.6%138 W · 158 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…4adebacked Magic48c311$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0556…132abacked Thunder53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1599346.2%43 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Thunder52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15626745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Magic48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15645646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.