TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,615 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5302…0a6fbacked Yes58c1,711$992 inWon+$718.9911957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No42c1,155$485 inLost-$4851,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f7…222fbacked No40c457$183 inLost-$182.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefb7…8e93backed No40c446$178 inLost-$178.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…c627backed No40c374$150 inLost-$149.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a5…bd13backed No40c363$145 inLost-$145.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No12c347.82$42 inLost-$41.741216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked No42c346.5$145 inLost-$145.2421937%81 W · 138 L-15.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95db…8bf5backed Yes60c295$177 inWon+$1181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca6…2c5abacked Yes60c285$171 inWon+$1141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f2…cb26backed Yes60c263$158 inWon+$105.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb66a…a924backed Yes60c244$146 inWon+$97.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c7…d5debacked Yes60c193$116 inWon+$77.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa82…e97dbacked Yes60c185$111 inWon+$741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0020…4610backed Yes56c179.14$100 inWon+$79.144854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a6…facdbacked Yes60c175$105 inWon+$701100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes58c141.66$82 inWon+$59.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No44c102.73$45 inLost-$45.171,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed No42c101$42 inLost-$42.4254246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb9…6a60backed No41c99.79$41 inLost-$41.012142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed No42c95$40 inLost-$39.7814452.1%75 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No42c88.99$37 inLost-$37.3864944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes58c76.4$44 inWon+$32.091,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed No42c30$13 inLost-$12.64434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No50c26.88$14 inLost-$13.5432866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes59c23.5$14 inWon+$9.6390357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.