NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19c09720e43c9968cd8249b3f9d319c8ccc8e96395ab34e36314409ba32734f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Thunder, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,408 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa24a…d9fabacked Thunder | 0c | 15,650$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder | 48c | 12,095$5,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,804.95 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Magic | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Thunder | 47c | 4,356$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.09 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 52c | 3,808$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Magic | 52c | 3,203$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.49 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…f4eebacked Thunder | 48c | 2,905$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…feecbacked Magic | 52c | 2,897$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…bd83backed Magic | 52c | 2,751$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…997fbacked Thunder | 48c | 2,743$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3009…19a9backed Magic | 53c | 2,125$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Thunder | 51c | 1,671$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.21 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder | 47c | 1,600$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.99 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Magic | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Magic | 45c | 1,050$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Thunder | 55c | 1,038$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Thunder | 47c | 1,026$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.08 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 47c | 863.87$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.02 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Magic | 47c | 846.43$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.25 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 53c | 656.07$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.35 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Magic | 52c | 509.02$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.88 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…4090backed Thunder | 61c | 412.61$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 48c | 404.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Magic | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Magic | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Magic | 47c | 375.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…0a1dbacked Magic | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Thunder | 45c | 201.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Magic | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Thunder | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Magic | 53c | 171.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Magic | 45c | 149.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Magic | 53c | 138$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Magic | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Magic | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Magic | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a2…0020backed Thunder | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Magic | 53c | 96.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Thunder | 41c | 89.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…7ff1backed Thunder | 48c | 85.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Magic | 55c | 81.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Magic | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Thunder | 49c | 76.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Magic | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Magic | 53c | 60.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf35e…f846backed Magic | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Magic | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Magic | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Magic | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 182 | 42.9%78 W · 104 L | -10.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Magic | 55c | 44.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c493backed Thunder | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Thunder | 35c | 39.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Thunder | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Thunder | 51c | 37.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Magic | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Magic | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 51c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…accbbacked Magic | 48c | 23.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Magic | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…c2f5backed Thunder | 74c | 16.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)this page
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Alex Caruso: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jared McCain: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Magic won
- Thunder vs. MagicThunder won
- Thunder vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Magic: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.