Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ea29639b6c1707cadd09c5dbec96a67a5bed7517c5d4fdd4da1d6f2c5c88b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,418$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 58c | 1,330$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,120$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 43c | 831.48$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.38 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 61c | 824.65$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 800$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 783$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 40c | 629.08$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 532.89$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 382.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 309.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.29 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 267.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 37c | 266.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 228.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 224.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 59c | 222.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 222.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a0…a5a8backed No | 34c | 221.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 27cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 42c | 187.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 56c | 173.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 164.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 43c | 148.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 41c | 142.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 41c | 142.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 141.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 57c | 132.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 119$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 115.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 32c | 114.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 38c | 110.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 57c | 109.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 109$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 108$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 33c | 102.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 99.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 58c | 98.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 42c | 96.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 87.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 79.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 45c | 78.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 71.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 44c | 69.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 72c | 67.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 64.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 55c | 64.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 41c | 62.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 42c | 60.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 60.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 39c | 58.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 67c | 55.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 53.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 52.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 51.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 60c | 51.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 71c | 50.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 53c | 49.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…6f7bbacked Yes | 59c | 46.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 42c | 45.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 52c | 40.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 40.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 38.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…71d5backed No | 40c | 38.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…8193backed No | 50c | 36.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 58c | 36.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 54c | 35.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 56c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 34.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 56c | 34.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 33.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 33.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 65c | 33.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 32.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 32.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fa…69a8backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 54c | 31.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 58c | 30.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.