Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x233bfdd8f971586d1f1e9f100c0301434668e9a07a1490fdbde71f8de6eb3a51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 59c | 1,152$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.56 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 76c | 1,073$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 489.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 484$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 453.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 379.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 362.4$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 32c | 284.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 65c | 263.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 224.8$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 224.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 219.44$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 208.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 205.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 174.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 41c | 171$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 162.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 161.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 160.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 157.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 154.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 149$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 22c | 147.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 139.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 136.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 128$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 126.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 124.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 18c | 115.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 115.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 115.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 15c | 111.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 18c | 107.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 37c | 101.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 100.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 93.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 81.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 80.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 33c | 73.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6a8ebacked Yes | 32c | 69.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 56c | 69.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 60.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 57.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 55.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 54.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 53.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 52.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 42c | 33.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 32.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 30.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 23.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 77c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 62c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 15.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.