Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ede6407ac4e37be0987786070a6cd452c78d0986751bb858d22c6861a6eb160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,359 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x702b…dedebacked Yes | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 2,467$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.5 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…db0abacked Yes | 28c | 2,243$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…c02bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,143$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 1,999$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.32 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 28c | 1,786$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.71 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 1,601$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.43 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 28c | 627.09$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.09 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 72c | 591.72$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.49 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…47acbacked Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 522.97$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 73c | 375.23$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc18…6847backed No | 73c | 374$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 38c | 338.71$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…3d33backed Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 53c | 320.72$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Yes | 28c | 309.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 278.64$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c8…2925backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 272.55$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.93 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd457…9d8abacked No | 73c | 269$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…017cbacked No | 73c | 266$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8d2fbacked No | 73c | 255$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 45c | 247.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed No | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…3b5bbacked No | 73c | 232$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…403abacked No | 73c | 231$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 222.67$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a2…320bbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 45c | 129.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 120.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 113$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…d864backed Yes | 28c | 97.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 72c | 90.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…8cc1backed Yes | 28c | 88.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 87.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes | 28c | 79.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…4533backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 69.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…73acbacked No | 39c | 61.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 29c | 58.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…a294backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…da69backed No | 72c | 48.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed No | 66c | 45.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…2fe4backed No | 73c | 36.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c39…8765backed No | 73c | 31.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fb…b56abacked No | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 71c | 29.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 72c | 24.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…afc9backed No | 68c | 20.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 72c | 17.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.