TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,601

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,601 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x160b…4296backed Yes40c25,096$10,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,038.4738748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No67c14,189$9,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,735.013,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes40c13,277$5,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,310.822941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked No56c12,935$7,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,680.546465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed No56c12,132$6,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,338.064456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No60c11,919$7,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,771.5769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No59c11,746$6,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,816.281,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed No59c9,420$5,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,862.21855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Yes44c6,394$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,813.252951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes44c3,564$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,568.0134144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No76c3,000$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes43c2,802$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.9934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes40c2,451$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.5417549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed No61c1,820$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.674965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No59c1,708$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.2817251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Yes32c1,555$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.615742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes19c1,286$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.344619.6%9 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes42c1,250$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.424050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes22c1,073$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9114734.7%51 W · 96 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Yes40c1,058$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.111540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes44c825.22$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.8875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No59c801.48$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.1635856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Yes41c801.41$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.586428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes23c793.81$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.24535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Yes32c749.44$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.853633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…7204backed Yes41c731.71$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Yes30c718.03$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.910728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes44c711.65$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.1348146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No57c710.43$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.8856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes31c644.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.69646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes44c643.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5419347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No59c621.71$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.611,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes22c544.96$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.742,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed Yes35c537.84$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.512536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No56c537.6$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.4422047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Yes41c492.07$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.751637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes40c488$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.22339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc190…02aebacked Yes42c450$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1892343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…19e9backed Yes40c403.17$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.93426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes34c391.15$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No59c376.57$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2616045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes7c323.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9713139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+73.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes42c309.52$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1309250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No66c302.23$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5639857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked No59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12310855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Yes17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked Yes23c291.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes42c285.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No58c271.08$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5719446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes44c270.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1196845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x177c…bcd1backed Yes42c265.81$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Yes27c251$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.61553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003119.4%6 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a5d…e3f4backed Yes12c222$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+26.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes45c222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc04d…1411backed Yes44c213.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Yes44c212$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.282962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4447…cc47backed Yes44c202.22$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a54…4e11backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9684…a461backed No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3768…3984backed Yes44c187.49$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7e…42babacked No57c186.97$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2dd…8d59backed No57c178.96$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78cc…65a4backed Yes44c178.59$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.448950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab00…b2b1backed No57c173.52$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.613100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+142%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee34…1382backed Yes44c171$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc3…f5ffbacked No57c168.92$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0126…065cbacked No57c165.21$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…6bc1backed No57c160.38$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x062d…039bbacked Yes44c157.76$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7142…e23ebacked Yes44c156.32$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cab…8228backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+102.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f1f…f56ebacked No57c153.26$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf65…ad03backed No57c149.23$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e46…3cf4backed Yes44c148.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89d…f314backed No57c147.94$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c42…ba43backed No57c147.86$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes44c143.62$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1963645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Yes32c142.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.363540%14 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bdb…e382backed Yes44c140.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x694c…eb70backed Yes41c139.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572218.2%4 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No59c138.6$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes33c136.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9622221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa073…da6fbacked Yes44c135.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Yes44c134.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.322955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…fdc8backed Yes35c128.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f72…56b8backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Yes40c124.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.85988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+53.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No59c122.87$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8533047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Yes41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8db3…e1b3backed Yes44c112.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a3…989bbacked Yes42c112.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd03…df4abacked Yes26c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.34240.5%17 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x206c…4f34backed No59c109.46$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.