Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1d5f4a3324375fa83562fe571bed475fbb46fa5f9ee58269d7dfc694d39580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 31c | 418.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 408.58$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 275.9$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 251.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 39c | 205.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 63c | 190.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 184.45$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 61c | 164.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 158.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 155.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 146.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 48c | 136.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 132.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 131.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 126.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 78c | 125.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 30c | 116.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 113.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 29c | 101.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 14c | 92.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 40c | 89.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 89.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 89.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 46c | 86.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 80.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 79.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 78.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 76.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 72.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 70.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 62.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 29c | 59.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 57.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…13d7backed No | 67c | 53.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 67c | 52.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 51.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 34c | 49.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 28c | 49.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 44.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 34c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 74c | 42.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e9…e017backed Yes | 32c | 39.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 36c | 36.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 36.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Yes | 42c | 36.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 32.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 38c | 31.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 63c | 31.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 68c | 30.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 79c | 27.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 44c | 27.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 65c | 27.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 26.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 24.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 44c | 24.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 46c | 23.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 78c | 22.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 22.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 78c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed No | 72c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.