CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4825f77a397bb1b17f8e2c4ff3c54e1c583da679863f02aaa70f46d8ab65e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 52c | 1,245$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.16 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.91 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed Under | 52c | 1,014$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.26 | 238 | 51.7%123 W · 115 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 47c | 961.43$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.56 | 265 | 49.1%130 W · 135 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Over | 48c | 945.76$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.8 | 648 | 52%337 W · 311 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 35c | 691.36$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.05 | 3,217 | 51.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L | +89.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 52c | 602.31$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.72 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 79c | 593.86$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 1,643 | 32.8%539 W · 1,104 L | -48.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Over | 48c | 435.96$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.7 | 365 | 55.9%204 W · 161 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…798fbacked Over | 48c | 406.57$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 37c | 387.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 55c | 352.15$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.51 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed Under | 33c | 350.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 52c | 346.21$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 149 | 55%82 W · 67 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 7c | 302.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 610 | 54.6%333 W · 277 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Under | 52c | 301.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 633 | 41.9%265 W · 368 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…54c2backed Over | 48c | 289.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…262ebacked Under | 8c | 277.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 67c | 261.71$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.37 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…1495backed Over | 48c | 232.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 53c | 218.66$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…a34abacked Over | 68c | 217.89$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 264 | 43.2%114 W · 150 L | -10.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…d46dbacked Over | 48c | 202.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 389 | 54.5%212 W · 177 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Under | 51c | 183.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 54c | 169.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Under | 33c | 164.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 107 | 29.9%32 W · 75 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 42c | 160.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked Over | 48c | 154.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…0134backed Over | 48c | 149.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…1edebacked Over | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fc…53cbbacked Over | 68c | 143.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…16f8backed Over | 48c | 121.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 33c | 116.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,205 | 47.6%1,049 W · 1,156 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 32c | 111.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1,080 | 50.9%550 W · 530 L | +38.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5229…2befbacked Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Over | 52c | 95.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Under | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…5ae1backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 129 | 55%71 W · 58 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked Over | 72c | 88.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…f6febacked Over | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 460 | 42.8%197 W · 263 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Under | 53c | 77.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 67c | 76.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 38c | 75.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 1,360 | 66.3%901 W · 459 L | +75.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 71.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 2,429 | 44.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L | -63.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 48c | 69.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 48c | 67.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93a…8a46backed Over | 48c | 63.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 63c | 60.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37da…41d2backed Over | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 63c | 58.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…be12backed Over | 48c | 58.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…77ddbacked Over | 48c | 58.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…569ebacked Under | 25c | 56.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Over | 63c | 50.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…0db2backed Over | 48c | 49.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…d8dbbacked Under | 33c | 47.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Over | 39c | 44.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 42.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…21e9backed Over | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…d2c3backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…a873backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…a515backed Over | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…9f2dbacked Over | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…929abacked Over | 65c | 38.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 52c | 35.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…5ab3backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc6…ab4ebacked Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…6529backed Over | 48c | 29.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Under | 43c | 29.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Over | 48c | 28.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 51c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…1487backed Over | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…6dbbbacked Over | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…9194backed Under | 52c | 21.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…ea10backed Over | 66c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 176 | 17%30 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group ATeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerVitality won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.