Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fb37b1dbffbc3b5a48777f5eb1b435291386a01d284983317e0f9b37ce6fe88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 47c | 534.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 423.7$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 321.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 264.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 245$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 194.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 189$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 171.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 57c | 148.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 69c | 139.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed No | 40c | 135.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 43c | 128.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 10c | 118.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 117.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 114.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 113.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 54c | 108.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 42c | 103.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 47c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 93.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 88.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 66c | 82.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 73.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 68.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 53.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 59c | 52.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 49.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 62c | 49.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 48.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 68c | 46.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 43.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 49c | 38.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 37.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 44c | 33.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 43c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 47c | 32.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 65c | 30.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 52c | 30.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 26.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 47c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 25.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 59c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 55c | 23.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 56c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 51c | 19.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 62c | 19.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 18.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 60c | 16.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 76c | 15.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.