Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85007c5908fbee5e70a10984bbb593c8c537cfd5a0542a5e1b864aea61214ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 1,029$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.7 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 31c | 704.58$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.46 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 602.92$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 22c | 541.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.78 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 443.1$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 415.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 348.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.11 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 18c | 341.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.84 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 77c | 285.68$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.42 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 28c | 270.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 46c | 267.88$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 266.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 20c | 212.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 201$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 191.78$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 188.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 177.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…27ddbacked Yes | 31c | 176.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 167.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 30c | 167.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 162.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 34c | 141.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 17c | 139.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 138$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 11c | 130.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 18c | 129.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.13 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 126.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 126.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 122.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 77c | 114$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 111.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 110.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 76c | 101.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 15c | 101.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 25c | 100.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 75c | 94.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 92.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 46c | 92.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 91.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 70c | 85.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 17c | 80.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 76.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 74.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 72.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 48c | 70.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 17c | 67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 65.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 71c | 63.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 60.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 60.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 39c | 56.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 49.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 77c | 43.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 66c | 41.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 39.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 37.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 62c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…db24backed No | 80c | 21.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 21.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 20.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 71c | 19.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 69c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 72c | 17.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 72c | 17.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 80c | 13.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.