Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10760d21a78bd23bbe274b601133a7d1e4317d2181f59fa01bbe9b06ca25c157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 11c | 438.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 14c | 428.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 366.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 275$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 26c | 241.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 235.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 197.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 13c | 197$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 191$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 171.53$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 168.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 64c | 140.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 17c | 125$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 119.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 112.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 112.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 111.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 105.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 39c | 104.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 52c | 100.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 96.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 42c | 94.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 94.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 32c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 89.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 87.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 80.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 80.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 56c | 75.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 36c | 73.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed No | 73c | 72.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 71.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 61c | 70.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 45c | 66.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 31c | 64.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 42c | 59.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 57.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa748…5419backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 52c | 54.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…f982backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 64c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 54c | 51.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 61c | 49.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 62c | 45.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 61c | 44.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 43.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…3f39backed Yes | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…69adbacked Yes | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 46c | 41.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 37c | 40.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…4719backed No | 78c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 37.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 39c | 37.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 38c | 37.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 36.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 34.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 54c | 32.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 55c | 31.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 44c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 57c | 28.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 58c | 25.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 24.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 66c | 23.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 68c | 21.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 54c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 67c | 20.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 72c | 16.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.