Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52a783030c970886d5c1755f6f06911a88712dd924e13b2290abb11fc42aaa71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 43c | 423.5$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 6c | 398.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 29c | 385.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.69 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 72c | 320.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 75c | 269.61$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 255.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 25c | 232.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 15c | 188.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 174.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 31c | 171.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 167.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 52c | 163.08$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 17c | 161.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 158.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 157.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 74c | 156.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 155$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 142.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 8c | 130.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 22c | 125.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 123.81$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 123.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 117.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 24c | 114.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed No | 63c | 111.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 111.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 21c | 99.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 42c | 96.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7983…f3c0backed No | 75c | 94.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 32c | 82.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 80.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 15c | 79.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 76.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked No | 65c | 76.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb19…08febacked Yes | 77c | 71.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 47c | 65.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 64.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 79c | 62.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 26c | 59.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 29c | 57.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 73c | 56.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 23c | 54.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 45c | 53.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e52…f194backed Yes | 74c | 51.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 50.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 44c | 50.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 49.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 32c | 48.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 72c | 45.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 26c | 43.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 76c | 43.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 43.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 71c | 42.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 28c | 37.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 75c | 31.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 28.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…f1dabacked No | 41c | 28.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…565cbacked Yes | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 24.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 20.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…ce48backed No | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…cdbabacked Yes | 69c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdd…2b66backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.