Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10b9ecc4036325f9f1073443030a8ccfae5a9b6615a69e2a7647bb3c852f19ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 1c | 3,376$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 357.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 307$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 47c | 230.94$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 35c | 229.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 210.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 200.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 190.86$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 187$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 73c | 138.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 27c | 127.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 119.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 67c | 117.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 114.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 72c | 108.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 63c | 106.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 34c | 103.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 89.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 87.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 86.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…db66backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 77.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 38c | 76.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 70.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 69.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 68.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 74c | 67.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 67.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 76c | 58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 72c | 55.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 41c | 55.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 41c | 54.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 37c | 53.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 62c | 47.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed No | 58c | 44.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 67c | 44.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 56c | 41.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 39.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 54c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 33.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 33.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 33.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 32.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 31.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f6…09bcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 27.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 43c | 26.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 58c | 22.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 74c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 68c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.