Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec06fc8f4aaa6a0b4ce649b8c14e73a997d7a55954b0ab6bd388eccaf86911fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 2c | 2,211$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 74c | 1,894$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.35 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 1,366$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 782.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 3c | 443.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 430.52$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 332.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 26c | 278$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 275.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 256.24$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…ae86backed No | 74c | 201.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 192.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 174.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 174.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 156.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 154.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 103.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 52c | 103.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 95.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 25c | 94.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 18c | 94.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 67c | 87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 23c | 82.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 75.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 63.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 21c | 61.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…8b42backed Yes | 21c | 61.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 21c | 61.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 51.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 47.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 50c | 43.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 56c | 42.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 69c | 40.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 32.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 48c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 28.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 25.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…88fbbacked No | 66c | 21.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed Yes | 60c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 17.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 16.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.