Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x115cacbbfec2690ecae49286e0150102eed39ce211af4a9967e85c2dc05b5735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 1,752$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 14c | 847.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 18c | 847$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 9c | 689$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Under | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Under | 80c | 345.24$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 302.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 253.07$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 80c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…5737backed Under | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 22c | 120.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 97.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…5ab3backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 20c | 62.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 55.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…d1a5backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 77c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5this page
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5Under won
- Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Algeria (-1.5)Netherlands won
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Algeria won
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Algeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.