MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118248ac4691cc200e0da8a88d4a2b02f6b8abde4bf486803f3d02d155cf4bd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 4,505$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 3,582$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.16 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 44c | 1,360$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 1,184$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.39 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Under | 57c | 999.96$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 899.28$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 31c | 639.14$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 56c | 614.79$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 37c | 542.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 540.93$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.88 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 499.99$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 459.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 60c | 242$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 239.94$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 37c | 237.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 56c | 236.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 43c | 207.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 205.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 43c | 162.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 56c | 160.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 44c | 156.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 43c | 150$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…13c0backed Under | 68c | 121.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b6…8ad0backed Over | 44c | 108.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 44c | 108.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 40c | 86.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 44c | 73.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 68.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 69c | 65.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Under | 58c | 62.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 65c | 54.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…cfcdbacked Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 66c | 46.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 56c | 38.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 57c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 35.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 56c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…7564backed Over | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 63c | 25.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Over | 44c | 24.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 60c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 71c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.