Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f513586b1b41c9fa87233bc0d8d6b22b0d117ba2964c1768048da673ea2284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 74c | 14,449$10,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,707.63 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 4,020$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,959.64 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 3,544$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.09 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…cbb1backed No | 74c | 2,033$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Yes | 25c | 2,012$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…7d17backed No | 73c | 1,499$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 78c | 1,282$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.55 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked No | 11c | 1,238$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 23c | 1,013$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.19 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 26c | 1,012$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.61 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 9c | 852.39$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 53c | 803.04$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.74 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 25c | 802.51$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.56 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 711.14$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.98 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 663.46$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.14 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 27c | 561.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 67c | 494.28$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.84 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…5715backed Yes | 29c | 463.38$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 411$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.21 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 65c | 400.19$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.12 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 382.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 29c | 348.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.69 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 28c | 316.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.03 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed No | 75c | 298.04$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…1efbbacked Yes | 27c | 292.59$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb12…6f8abacked Yes | 27c | 289.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…eeb8backed No | 30c | 262.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 254.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 73c | 247$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.31 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 62c | 222$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…0039backed Yes | 27c | 218.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 19c | 215$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked No | 18c | 207.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 192.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 67c | 149.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 27c | 140.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…4dfdbacked Yes | 25c | 132.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +104%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4f…e347backed No | 74c | 112.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 26c | 112$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 29c | 105$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 74c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0015…c049backed No | 74c | 102.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Yes | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63db…41febacked No | 74c | 96.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 21c | 89.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…c187backed No | 74c | 83.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 83.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 82.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 75.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 21c | 72.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…b754backed No | 74c | 63.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 19c | 61.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 60.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…ed62backed Yes | 41c | 54.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 71c | 50.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 46c | 50.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…bb61backed No | 74c | 48.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 52c | 47.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed No | 71c | 39.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 35.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 73c | 27.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 70c | 26.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…6959backed No | 74c | 21.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 73c | 19.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…858abacked Yes | 71c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-23?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.