Bundesliga · resolved market
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1227ae4ffd663a29168c9ac6de2c4583652e8778f8cfc9839abb71763c33742c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 17,407$4,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,485.09 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 12,967$9,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 23c | 6,792$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.89 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 74c | 4,073$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 75c | 1,931$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.61 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 74c | 1,861$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.77 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 76c | 1,573$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.1 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 5c | 1,416$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 26c | 1,385$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.1 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 74c | 1,189$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.84 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 27c | 682.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.14 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 17c | 598.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.73 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 27c | 591.88$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…d6e0backed Under | 75c | 492.5$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 26c | 488.83$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 78c | 471.11$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…997ebacked Over | 24c | 395.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Over | 26c | 372.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 73c | 368.22$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 24c | 356.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Under | 72c | 277.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…25e1backed Over | 18c | 270.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 75c | 262.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 15c | 253.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 235.04$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 74c | 205.55$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 74c | 185.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 26c | 162.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Over | 26c | 147.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 26c | 130.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a35…f88bbacked Over | 24c | 122.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 75c | 108.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 75c | 102.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 101.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…6f30backed Under | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…d3acbacked Over | 26c | 98.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…188fbacked Under | 77c | 95.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…70c5backed Under | 74c | 93.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…1c42backed Over | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 75c | 61.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 75c | 59.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Under | 75c | 45.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 75c | 45.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 76c | 44.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 26c | 39.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 27c | 38.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 75c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…d7dabacked Under | 77c | 37.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…b421backed Under | 74c | 36.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 73c | 30.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 75c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…56abbacked Under | 80c | 23.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 77c | 21.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Under | 74c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 73c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 74c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.