TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$401,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d30…a42dbacked Over47c162,747$76,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,006.281560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Under53c108,773$57,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,123.211163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Over47c49,769$23,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,391.286358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under64c39,097$25,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,907.343,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over47c29,047$13,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,656.3410041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Under53c20,556$10,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,661.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Over47c15,000$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,049.954540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under53c10,884$5,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,137.731,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Under54c10,850$5,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,990.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under53c10,358$5,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,845.461,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Over49c9,807$4,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.473324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under54c9,181$4,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.4116647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6806549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under53c7,925$4,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.9669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c7,258$3,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,628.777967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7605843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Under53c5,501$2,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,585.352343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Over50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under55c4,448$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.6418644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under55c4,446$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.7621355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under51c4,167$2,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.953836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under53c3,792$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.172638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under53c3,667$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.57875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Over40c3,606$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Under53c3,539$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under54c3,500$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6106744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over29c3,460$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.193740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Under51c3,209$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3e…7857backed Over16c3,114$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.222352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…138cbacked Over48c3,028$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Over48c3,018$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,453.332931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4102152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3805944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under53c2,617$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.774647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over31c2,589$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.432236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under53c2,545$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.894461.4%27 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over23c2,409$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.785024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Under77c2,330$1,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over47c2,212$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.81662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…9971backed Under50c2,181$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under53c2,007$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.187443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdf07…e601backed Over47c2,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9303548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Under54c1,984$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.521145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over47c1,898$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.0615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Under52c1,868$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.491172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under53c1,834$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.784949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under61c1,828$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.1175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Under50c1,670$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.178143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over48c1,659$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.0428755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under53c1,615$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.113946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Over49c1,613$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.992450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under54c1,471$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.3748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under54c1,429$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.5117247.1%81 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked Over22c1,303$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d7babacked Over39c1,300$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under54c1,293$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.0649647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over47c1,289$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.729855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under53c1,252$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.2914652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over16c1,187$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.921833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under50c1,138$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.622846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over47c1,030$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.15538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Under54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd411…7a18backed Over15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4606549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4606647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4705349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9869…1a45backed Under53c995.57$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under54c972.4$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.35461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under53c916.79$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3765743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3686446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under53c800$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3765745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Under51c761.25$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.011560%9 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over26c720.82$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3933938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over23c709.22$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…8fd8backed Over41c705.8$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under53c665.27$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.0481732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d30…077dbacked Over21c654.77$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.244143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under53c643.99$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.685745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over23c620.73$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.4248141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over48c598.98$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.498630.2%26 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under68c587.03$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.11,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over46c525.87$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.93339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Under53c520.91$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.973644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2307050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under54c500$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over46c492.21$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.422138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under54c486$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.569459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under55c478$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.15145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over40c476.27$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.865158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under54c471$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over48c464.22$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.822951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under54c450.18$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.088448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over47c438.3$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.614447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over22c433.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.326428.1%18 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Over47c432.91$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4710728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.28950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under54c420$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.28851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Over47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1882860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.